Last year when the academy went back to nominating ten films for best picture (instead of only five), I felt that the category was padded with some OK, but not very interesting movies. This year – what a change! All ten films should rightfully be considered serious nominees. This is pretty amazing, considering that the major studios have concentrated almost solely on pumping out sequels, romantic comedies, and comic book movies.
It’s the Sundance crowd – the independent films – that have taken up the slack. Maybe Hollywood will get the message and start making serious dramas again? Don’t count on it. But props to Sony for going out on a limb and making The Social Network.
Here are my predictions in the big categories. (I hope to include an addendum shortly that lists every category.)
Best Picture
The King's Speech
The Social Network may be the best movie of the year (at least most of the critics thought so), but The King’s Speech is aimed right at the academy’s heart and I don’t think they will be able to resist.
Director
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Usually Picture and Director go hand in hand, but I think they will split this year and give Social Network’s director the prize.
Actress
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
I would love to see Annette Bening go home with the award for The Kids Are All Right, but Natalie seems to have cast this spell that is pulling in every award she comes across.
Actor
Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
If there is a sure thing tonight, this is it. Colin has an impressive body of work and many people thought he would win last year for A Single Man. So, this seems to be his year.
Supporting Actress
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
OK, every year needs its upset, and think this is where it will happen tonight. Melissa Leo is favored to win here, and she has been picking up most of the awards this season for her feisty mother in The Fighter. But she is competing against her co-star Amy Adams which could split votes. And she waged a rather shameless self-promotion campaign that may backfire. Hailee has two things going in her favor. First, she was actually the lead in True Grit, and second she is young – both are things the Academy typically rewards.
Supporting Actor
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Like Colin Firth, Christian Bale seems to have a lock on his category.
Original Screenplay
David Seidler (The King's Speech)
The Kids Are All Right was my favorite original screenplay, but David Seidler’s script for The King’s Speech also deserves the award and will take.
Adapted Screenplay
Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)
I am a huge Aaron Sorkin fan (Sports Night, The West Wing, Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip) and I am sure he will get the Oscar for his script for The Social Network. It was really an achievement to make computer programming and endless legal depositions into a dramatic movie. But, for me, the most amazing screenplay of the year was Toy Story 3. Even though it was the third installment of a cartoon, writer Michael Arndt gave us an emotional comedy/action/adventure thriller.
Animated Feature
Toy Story 3
No contest.
Art Direction
Eve Stewart and Judy Farr (The King’s Speech)
Alice in Wonderland has a chance here – but The King’s Speech sets were wonderfully detailed.
Here’s just a quick look at the rest:
Cinematography
True Grit
Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Documentary (Feature)
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Film Editing
The Social Network
Foreign-Language Film
Biutiful
Music (Original Score)
The Social Network
Music (Original Song)
We Belong Together
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